12:20 pm Jul. 6, 20126
For all the speculation about Jeremy Lin's 2012-13 destination, it's always seemed most likely that he was going to stay right where he is.
Lin is a restricted free agent, meaning that the New York Knicks could match any offer from another team. Sure, another team could theoretically offer Lin so much money that the Knicks wouldn't want to match. But exactly how the mechanics of that worked were unclear; Lin is an accomplished N.B.A. point guard, if in limited action, and a marketing machine who printed money for the Knicks last season. The price point for Lin to become too expensive was set, according to a source with the Knicks, at $1 billion. And that sounded about right.
So the offer from the Houston Rockets, which calls for Lin to earn a guaranteed $19.5 million over three years with a fourth-year team option, falls far short of the theoretical poison-pill contract that would cause the Knicks to think twice about retaining Lin.
In several ways, the contract is a bargain.
Let's consider the best comparison to Lin's free agency this summer: point guard Goran Dragic.
Dragic had been an effective backup point guard for the Houston Rockets, and agreed to a four-year, $34 million contract with the Phoenix Suns Wednesday night.
Last season, Dragic performed at a higher level in his age-25 season than he had in his first three years in the league. His assist percentage of 32.5 was a solid one. His turnoever rate of 18.7 was quite good. And his shooting of 46 percent overall, 34 percent from three-point range, and 80 percent when he got to the line helped keep defenses honest. He started 28 games, with a total of 36 starts to his credit in his career.
Most of those numbers pale in comparison to Lin's. His assist percentage, the most important job a point guard has, blows away Dragic's, checking in at 41 percent. His turnover rate was a bit higher, at 21.4 percent, but not nearly enough to even things out. And Lin's shooting was comparable (45 percent overall, 32 percent from three, 80 percent from the line) while he took an additional three shots every 36 minutes.
Player efficiency rating captures the overall difference. League average is 15. Dragic was at 18 last year, 14.8 for his career. So the Suns are betting that last season marks a new level of play for him.
Lin, at age 23, posted a PER of 19.9 last year. For reference, that ranked eighth in the league last season among point guards, just below the prime-level seasons of Steve Nash and Deron Williams. Nash didn't reach Lin's level of play until he was 27, though. And Williams did it in his age-23 season, just like Lin.
So for roughly half the guaranteed money Dragic received, the Knicks can employ a point guard whose playing record suggests he is far likelier to end up among the elite point guards in the league than Dragic is.
But you haven't heard of Goran Dragic, you might say. Well, that is the other advantage Jeremy Lin enjoys.
It is fair to say that for roughly half the guaranteed money, Lin will bring in far more revenue for the Knicks through marketing than Goran Dragic will for the Phoenix Suns, or even what Dragic would have for the Knicks. Let's say Lin doesn't pan out for whatever reason, either because he cannot stand the rigors of a full N.B.A. season, an unknown at this point, or his play drops off.
The major hit the Knicks take with Lin at that point is the $9.3 million he is guaranteed in year three of the deal he agreed to with Houston. If the Knicks are that worried about paying for that, a doubtful proposition, they can simply put the extra money Linsanity will provide next season alone, and put it in a piggy bank to pay Lin's third season salary.
In all likelihood, however, Lin's third-year salary of $9.3 million—which he will earn in his age-26 season, while Deron Williams is getting paid twice that for his age-30 season—will look like a bargain.
Could not agree with the author more! In fact, the team option in year 4 is an insult! Knicks should match but change the team option to player option to show respect!
Finally a fair and unbiased assessment of Lin's situation. Jeremy Lin simply can not get the respect he deserves in this highly racist NBA league. That's because he is not black or white. Therefore, He is being treated like an immigrant, not a native son.
Unlike some other writers, who just cut and pasted comments from other people's, saying Lin is an "unproven commodity", obviously you did do some homework before writing this article.
Tyson Chandler, after 4 games with Lin, knows right away how Lin is, and said "He's not a fluke. This is real." "He just has this pace and confidence," said Tyson Chandler. "He just keeps coming. You have to love a kid like that."
I'm sure Tyson knows best than any of us.
There is no way on God's green earth that Lin is going to be a better player than Dragic, its not happening... Lin did his damage in a 10 game span last year, where they had no other scorers vs 10 of the worst teams or teams that were playing bad at time or bad on the road... Dragic WILL have more combined PTS/ASSIST this year, rebounds will be close... HE will have less TOs, he will be more efficient and he WILL play better defense... He is def. a better shooter than Lin, by far and proved it over a longer period of time than LIN, as well Dragic is bigger, more explosive ( by far) and a more controlled player... I would think Dragic market value-- 4yr/40M, i wouldn't go farther than 3yr/20M for LIN... He is going to be a BUST! he already proved that a half an NBA season puts serious wear and tear on his body... Dragic was a bench player playing with the second unit most of last year (and career for that matter) for less mins. a game than Lin.. Lin didn't even play a full season as a starter so all your efficiency, shooting and pts/assist numbers were inflated.. I PROMISE YOU, barring injury, that if the KNICKS were smart, they would've signed Dragic and drop that very mediocre PG, LIN... I live in NEW YORK, born and raised in BK and i know this... Do you not have the Baseball package that you don't know this? or you just see the Sportscenter highlights, cause you sound like an idiot! Take care-
It is important to note that Lin achieved much better PER than Dragic under much higher pressure from opposing defenses designed to stop him and also pressures from fans. Dragic's PER might get lower had he received the same "respect" that Lin received from opponents, which was incomparable during the run.
It is important to note that Lin's PER was not only better than Dragic's but also Lin achieved it under much higher pressure with opposing defenses game-planned to stop him (often with double or even triple team). Lin had a huge bulls-eye on him during the run, the pressure he faced from opponents, fans and media was simply incomparable. Dragic's PER would most likely be much lower had he received the same "respect" that Lin received from opponents.