New poll shows Quinn, Weiner and Thompson in a virtual tie

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A day after a Wall Street Journal/NBC/ Marist poll showed former congressman Anthony Weiner leading the Democratic mayoral pack, a new poll from Quinnipiac says the race is a close to a dead heat between Weiner and two other candidates, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former comptroller Bill Thompson.

The Quinnipiac poll has Quinn leading the field with 19 percent, Weiner with 17 percent and Thompson with 16 percent, all within or hovering close to the poll's 2.8 percent margin of error.

For Quinnipiac, the numbers represent a drop 6 percent drop for Quinn from last month's Quinnipiac poll, when she had 25 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Thompson gained 6 percent and Weiner gained only 2 percent.

Public Advocate Bill de Blasio's support remained unchanged from the May to June polls, at 10 percent. City Comptroller John Liu went up 1 percent, to 7.

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Quinnipiac pollster Mickey Carroll said in a statement, "New Yorkers are turning against Speaker Quinn as her job approval rating and favorability rating drop."

Carroll also said, "Weiner is in negative territory and Thompson remains unknown to many voters."

Carroll's reference to Weiner being "in negative territory" is a reference to the former congressman's favorability rating among all voters: 37-43. But among Democrats, Weiner's favorably rating is 44-37 percent, with only 15 percent saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

De Blasio has a 39-14 favorability rating, but 45 percent of Democrats say they don't know enough about it to form an opinion.

Thompson, who was the 2009 Democratic mayoral nominee, has a 45-11 favorability rating, with 42 percent saying they haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion.

Quinn's favorability rating is closer to that of Weiner. She has a 52-31 percent favorability rating among Democrats, with only 16 percent undecided about her.

 

Between Quinnipiac and Marist, Weiner's electoral prospects seem markedly different. The Guardian's blogger Harry Enten pointed out that Quinnipiac shows Weiner garnering 6 percent less support among black voters and 11 percent less support among Latino voters than in the Marist poll.

Wall Street Journal reporter Lisa Fleisher noted that the Marist poll was conducted from June 17 to 21, while the Quinnipiac poll was done later, and took slightly longer: June 19-25.

The Quinnipiac poll also asked about New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly as a mayoral candidate. In a hypothetical race with Quinn on the Democratic line and Joe Lhota, the former MTA chairman, on the Republican line, and Kelly running as an independent, Quinn wins with 38 percent of the vote, compared to Kelly's 25 and Lhota's 8.

Ninety-one percent of Republicans say they want Kelly to enter the race. Kelly has made no indication he will do so.

The Quinnipiac poll included 830 Democrats with a 3.4 percent margin of error. The Marist poll had responses from 689 Democrats and had a 3.7 percent margin of error.

Here are more charts showing the differences between the Quinnipiac and Marist polls.