3:40 pm Jan. 16, 20133
Under New York City's distinctive program of public campaign financing, candidates can raise as much money as they want, but only some of it is eligible to be matched with public money at a 6:1 ratio, and there's a spending cap.
The spending cap essentially has the same evening-out effect among candidates who participate in the program as a salary cap does among professional sports teams, shifting the emphasis away from overall wealth toward the ability to spend a limited fortune wisely. (This didn't apply to Michael Bloomberg, who self-financed and didn't take matching funds.)
In the out-years before an election, the spending cap is $303,000. The spending limit for the primary is $6,426,000.
I looked at the raising and spending so far of the major Democrats: City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, former city comptroller Bill Thompson, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio and City Comptroller John Liu.
Here's a chart of their spending during this mayoral cycle.
Quinn's early burst of spending is distinctive, as is Liu's late uptick.
But Quinn's early spending is somewhat overstated here. Her campaign actually spent only about $60,000, and the other $400,000 is a "spending limit adjustment" that the NYCCFB made after term limits were changed in 2009.
Before the change, which is to say before Michael Bloomberg was eligible to run again and Quinn was forced to put her plans on hold for four more years, she was fund-raising for a bid for mayor, a race for which the spending limits are higher. After the change, she dropped down to a smaller-gauge race for Council, with a lower spending cap.
The adjustment represents the campaign finance board's determination of how much of that early money she's eligible to spend for a later race. You can read more about that here.
Liu's late uptick in spending came after The Times raised questions about the source of some of his donations. A good chunk of it was on lawyers. His former campaign treasurer, Jenny Hou, and a fund-raiser, Oliver Pan, are facing federal charges on breaking city campaign laws. Liu himself has not been accused of any wrongdoing.
But Liu's spending is only slightly ahead of de Blasio's, whose campaign has a sizable roster of consultants and campaign workers.
Thompson's apparent frugality is in part a function of the fact that he was late getting his campaign off the ground. He didn't really activate his campaign until the first half of 2011, nearly a year after his rivals.
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This second chart shows how much money each of the candidates has left to spend under the spending cap.
I arrived at the amounts by taking the candidates' total disbursements, which includes actual spending and outstanding liabilities--bills they'll have to pay before the election--then subtracted the amount they're allowed to spend in the out-year: $303,000. Then I took that number for each of them and subtracted it from the amount they're allowed to spend in the primary: $6,426,000. That's how much they have left to spend.
Thompson, according to my math, has the most room to spend. But his advantage in this category over Quinn, whose relatively high name recognition and leftover pile of cash from the previous cycle has allowed her to spend lightly in the early going, is only about $300,000. In the home stretch of a heated primary, that amount could be a media buy, or a mailer. In other words, it could be a meaningful difference if the contest is otherwise really, really close.
CORRECTION: The second graph has been corrected. Quinn has $5,816,773 left to spend, not $5,816,793.
This all assumes that the candidates will accept public matching funds. There is good reason to believe that they will not.
A 2011 Supreme Court ruling (preceded a year earlier by a similar 2nd Circuit Court ruling) states that "bonus" matching funds that go to candidates who are opposed by high-spending nonparticipants are unconstitutional. In other words, while in 2009 Bill Thompson got extra matching funds and a higher spending limit (no limit at all, actually) because he was running against Michael Bloomberg, that couldn't happen again.
The key is $16.3 million. If a candidate for mayor can raise that much, there is no point in taking matching funds; that is the spending limit that goes with those matching funds ($300k in out years, $6.4m for the primary, $3.2m for a runoff, and $6.4m for the general election).
Anyone who believes that Quinn, Liu and de Blasio (at least) cannot raise that kind of money is living in a fantasy world. And anyone who believes that any of them will limit spending voluntarily is just as out of touch with reality.
Great work! (As always)
I think this shows a pretty even arsenal for all. The key will be who can run a leaner, more efficient and effective campaign. Those who "just send out another mailer" will NOT be the winner.
Each candidate in the graph will have to use a good chunk of their money to overcome their own obstacles.
Quinn: How will she counter her face plastered all over food carts, etc. around the City, calling her out? For that matter, how about the determined group that protests her wherever she goes?
Thompson: Last time around, while he was grossly outspent, it was more of a referendum vote on giving Bloomberg a third-term. How he spent $9.4mm and STILL was unrecognizable says allot about his likability.
De Blasio: The staff he has assembled is quite formidable. But how much will they cost him over the long haul?
Liu: Still has the huge poster fine outstanding, and will have to counter all the legal issues his ex-campaign staff is facing. The amount spent on legal fees is also a cut into the war chest.
The ground game will be a major factor here. Who is actually liked in the street? One should look at these candidates 2009 campaigns for some insight on that.
Keep up the great work Azi!
I think this shows a pretty even arsenal for all. The key will be who can run a leaner, more efficient and effective campaign. Those who "just send out another mailer" will NOT be the winner.
Each candidate in the graph will have to use a good chunk of their money to overcome their own obstacles.
Quinn: How will she counter her face plastered all over food carts, etc. around the City, calling her out? For that matter, how about the determined group that protests her wherever she goes?
Thompson: Last time around, while he was grossly outspent, it was more of a referendum vote on giving Bloomberg a third-term. How he spent $9.4mm and STILL was unrecognizable says allot about his likability.
De Blasio: The staff he has assembled is quite formidable. But how much will they cost him over the long haul?
Liu: Still has the huge poster fine outstanding, and will have to counter all the legal issues his ex-campaign staff is facing. The amount spent on legal fees is also a cut into the war chest.
The ground game will be a major factor here. Who is actually liked in the street? One should look at these candidates 2009 campaigns for some insight on that.
Keep up the great work Azi!