8:29 am Oct. 26, 2012
President Obama's October slide is hurting Democratic candidates across the country and dimming the party's hopes of re-taking the House, according to pollsters and operatives who talked to Politico.
But in New York, the president's coattails seem to be getting longer.
A new Siena poll out this morning showed Obama with a 59-35 lead over Mitt Romney, which is not so far off his 63-36 win against John McCain in 2008.
That year, Democrats nearly eliminated the Republican delegation, winning some right-leaning districts and reducing the population of Republican members to just three. (That number went down to two after the election, when Obama nominated Rep. John McHugh as Army Secretary, and Democrats won his seat in a special election.)
Republicans rode a 2010 wave and roared back to eight members. But, after a round of non-partisan redistricting implemented by a federal court, the state is suddenly full of swing districts, and an important part of who will ultimately control the House.
The biggest cause for concern among all those marginal Republican members might not be the overall number, but the big swing among swing voters. Obama now leads independents by 25 points in New York, up from just 8 points in August.
That runs counter to most national polls, which show Romney picking up independents and possibly even taking a national lead against the president.
The state's other overwhelmingly popular executive, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, will be trying to impart some of his own good standing to House Democrats today, with stops across the state. His favorability rating is still a at 67-24.
That's the same stratospheric margin by which Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leads Wendy Long, who is struggling to raise money too. Which means Republicans won't get much help from either candidate at the top of their ticket.