10:24 am Aug. 21, 2012
Paul Ryan won't have much effect on the presidential race in New York, according to a new Siena poll out this morning, but he may factor into some of the state's contested House races.
New York has as many as eight contested congressional races this year, an unusually high number, owing to a set of new district lines that were drawn by a federal court instead of the usual partisan players in Albany.
Some Republicans worry that Mitt Romney's selection of Ryan as his running mate could harm candidates down the ballot, just as Ryan's controversial budget contributed to the party's loss of one upstate seat, in the special election to replace Chris Lee.
Ryan's overall numbers in the state aren't good: he's viewed favorably by 31 percent of New Yorkers and unfavorably by 46 percent. But much of that is a reflection of opinion in New York City, where he's at 26 percent to 53 percent.
The picture is less grim for him in the crosstabs.
Upstate and in the suburbs, where most of the House battles are being fought, Ryan is viewed more favorably: 34 percent in the suburbs and 36 percent upstate approve of him, with 42 percent opposing him in both regions.
Ryan's big plan to overhaul Medicare hasn't hurt him with New York seniors, at least relative to other demographics.
Voters over 55—who would be less affected by his planned Medicare overhaul than everyone else—gave Ryan a 35 percent favorability rating (to 43 percent unfavorable). That was significantly better than the younger demographic (ages 18 to 34) in which only 25 percent viewed him favorably, to 51 percent unfavorable. (The demographic between those two was also in-between on its support for Ryan: 32 percent to 47 percent.)
Respondents who said they're independent were evenly split on Ryan, 43 percent to 44 percent.
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