9:00 pm Jun. 26, 2012
A number of political and political-media people sent me some predictions before the polls closed today.
The general consensus is that Rep. Charlie Rangel will win the NY-13 primary, but by a smaller margin than Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries does in NY-08. In NY-06, picks the order of finish to be Grace Meng, Rory Lancman, Elizabeth Crowley (Crowley's campaign claimed four "internal polls" showing it was a Meng-Crowley race all along.)
A couple of notable departures from the pack came from Chris Smith, who expects Barron to give Jeffries a heart attack, but not a fatal one, and field-operations expert Doug Forand, who sees Espaillat beating Rangel.
Here are the predictions:
NY-06
Ross Wallenstein:
50-Grace Meng
30-Rory Lancman
20-Liz Crowley
Chris Smith:
48-Grace Meng
30-Rory Lancman
20-Liz Crowley
Steven Stites:
48-Grace Meng
Doug Forand:
43-Grace Meng
33-Rory Lancman
24-Liz Crowley
Colin Campbell:
42-Grace Meng
29-Rory Lancman
25-Liz Crowley
Lincoln Restler:
42-Grace Meng
28-Rory Lancman
25-Liz Crowley
Chris Owens:
40-Grace Meng
38-Rory Lancman
22-Liz Crowley
Chris Bragg:
40-Grace Meng
32-Rory Lancman
28-Liz Crowley
Bob Liff:
38.4-Grace Meng
32.8-Rory Lancman
28.8-Liz Crowley
Andrew Hawkins:
38-Grace Meng
34-Rory Lancman
24-Liz Crowley
"Masseby Emerson":
38-Grace Meng
32-Liz Crowley
30-Rory Lancman
Alex L.:
38-Grace Meng
Ross Barkan:
37-Grace Meng
Alyssa Katz:
36-Grace Meng
Steve Kramer:
39-Rory Lancman
37-Grace Meng
22-Liz Crowley
2-Other
Michael Powell:
Grace Meng
Michael Benjamin:
43-Rory Lancman
37-Grace Meng
30-Liz Crowley
NY-07
Alyssa Katz:
69-Nydia Velazquez
Steven Stites:
68-Nydia Velazquez
Michael Benjamin:
65-Nydia Velazquez
35-Erik Dilan
Ross Barkan:
65-Nydia Velazquez
Bod Liff: Doug Forand
61.3-Nydia Velazquez
38.7-Erik Dilan
Lincoln Restler:
61-Nydia Velazquez
29-Erik Dilan
Chris Owens:
60-Nydia Velazquez
40-Erik Dilan
Alex L.:
58-Nydia Velazquez
Ross Wallenstein:
55-Nydia Velazquez
45-Erik Dilan
"Masseby Emerson":
55-Nydia Velazquez
45-Erik Dilan
Andrew Hawkins:
55-Nydia Velazquez
35-Erik Dilan
Chris Smith:
54-Nydia Velazquez
44-Erik Dilan
Colin Campbell:
54-Nydia Velazquez
39-Erik Dilan
Steve Kramer:
53-Nydia Velazquez
47-Erik Dilan
Doug Forand:
53-Nydia Velazquez
42-Erik Dilan
Chris Bragg:
45-Nydia Velazquez
40-Erik Dilan
10-Dan O'Connor
5-George Martinez
Michael Powell
Nydia Velazaquez
NY-08
Michael Benjamin:
74-Hakeem Jeffries
25-Charles Barron
Doug Forand:
65.5-Hakeem Jeffries
34.5-Charles Barron
Bob Liff
62-Hakeem Jeffries
38-Charles Barron
Steve Kramer:
62-Hakeem Jeffries
38-Charles Barron
Steven Stites:
62-Hakeem Jeffries
Colin Campbell:
60-Hakeem Jeffries
40-Charles Barron
Lincoln Restler:
59-Hakeem Jeffries
41-Charles Barron
Andrew Hawkins:
57-Hakeem Jeffries
43-Charles Barron
Alex L.:
57-Hakeem Jeffries
Alyssa Katz:
56-Hakeem Jeffries
Chris Bragg:
55-Hakeem Jeffries
45-Charles Barron
Ross Wallenstein:
55-Hakeem Jeffries
45-Charles Barron
David Segal:
53-Hakeem Jeffries
47-Charles Barron
Chris Owens:
52-Hakeem Jeffries
48-Charles Barron
Chris Smith:
52-Hakeem Jeffries
45-Charles Barron
Ross Barkan:
51-Hakeem Jeffries
Michael Powell:
Hakeem Jeffries
"Masseby Emerson":
50.5-Charles Barron
49.5-Hakeem Jeffries
NY-09
Ross Barkan:
90-Yvette Clarke
Bob Liff:
89.4-Yvette Clarke
10.6-Syliva Kinard
Andrew Hawkins:
88-Yvette Clarke
20-Sylvia Kinard
Chris Owens:
85-Yvette Clarke
15-Sylvia Kinard
Michael Benjamin:
85-Yvette Clarke
15-Sylvia Kinard
Alyssa Katz:
83-Yvette Clarke
Steve Kramer:
81-Yvette Clarke
19-Syvia Kinard
Ross Wallenstein:
80-Yvette Clarke
20-Syliva Kinard
"Masseby Emerson":
80-Yvette Clarke
20-Sylvia Kinard
Lincoln Restler:
77-Yvette Clarke
23-Sylvia Kinard
Colin Campbell:
75-Yvette Clarke
25-Sylvia Kinard
Doug Forand:
74-Yvette Clarke
26-Sylvia Kinard
Alex L.:
74-Yvette Clarke
Chris Bragg:
70-Yvette Clarke
30-Sylvia Kinard
Chris Smith:
65-Yvette Clarke
33-Sylvia Kinard
Michael Powell:
Yvette Clarke
NY-13
Ross Wallenstein:
35-Clyde Williams
30-Charlie Rangel
25-Adriano Espaillat
5-Joyce Johnson
5-Craig Schley
David Segal:
41-Adriano Espaillat
37-Charlie Rangel
15-Clyde Williams
5-Joyce Johnson
2-Craig Schley
Doug Forand:
39-Adriano Espaillat
36-Charlie Rangel
14-Clyde Williams
7-Joyce Johnson
4-Craig Schley
Michael Powell:
Charlie Rangel
Alyssa Katz:
31-Charlie Rangel
Chris Smith:
35-Charlie Rangel
32-Adriano Espaillat
25-Clyde Williams
4-Joyce Johnson
2-Craig Schley
Ross Barkan:
35-Charlie Rangel
Andrew Hawkins:
36-Charlie Rangel
31-Adriano Espaillat
22-Clyde Williams
2-Joyce Johnson
2-Craig Schley
Chris Bragg:
38-Charlie Rangel
33-Adriano Espailalt
20-Clyde Williams
7-Joyce Johnson
2-Craig Schley
Lincoln Restler:
39-Charlie Rangel
37-Adriano Espailalt
14-Clyde Williams
8-Joyce Johnson
2-Craig Schley
Chris Owens:
40-Charlie Rangel
35-Adriano Espaillat
15-Joyce Johnson
9-Clyde Williams
1-Craig Schley
"Masseby Emerson":
41-Charlie Rangel
34-Adriano Espaillat
14-Clyde Williams
9-Joyce Johnson
2-Craig Schley
Alex L.:
41-Charlie Rangel
Colin Campbell:
42-Charlie Rangel
39-Adriano Espaillat
13-Clyde Williams
4-Joyce Johnson
2-Craig Schley
Steve Kramer:
43.5-Charlie Rangel
42-Adriano Espaillat
11-Clyde Williams
2.5-Joyce Johnson
1-Craig Schley
Bob Liff:
43.6-Charlie Rangel
34.9-Adriano Espaillat
15.7-Clyde Williams
4.8-Joyce Johnson
Steven Stites:
44-Charlie Rangel
Michael Benjamin:
45-Charlie Rangel
40-Adriano Espailalt
8-Clyde Williams
5-Joyce Johnson
1-Craig Schley
