3:51 pm Nov. 11, 20113
A few days removed from a masterfully engineered last-second drive to defeat the Patriots in Foxborough, Giants quarterback Eli Manning is the toast of New York football. He has proven, writers and fans now say, that he is precisely the elite quarterback he claims to be.
The coronation of Manning following his victory in New England also seems to have provided a convenient new impetus for the relentless, exuberant, sometimes-manic criticism of Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez. Whereas before Sanchez was simply not good enough, now he is simply not Eli.
The Daily News published a piece under the headline “Eli-te QB Difference in Giant-Jet Debate.” The Record of Bergen County ran a piece called “Jets waiting for Sanchez to have that Eli moment.” The Wall Street Journal offered what was ostensibly an exploration of the Jets’ lack of continuity at wide receiver, but even that piece morphed into yet another unflattering comparison between Manning and Sanchez.
The Journal article quoted former N.F.L. general manager-cum-TV-desk jockey Charlie Casserly, of whom Patriots coach Bill Belichick famously observed, “Who’s been wrong more than Charley Casserly since he left the Redskins?” Well, according to Casserly, the performance disparity between Manning and Sanchez owes to “a clear difference in talent level” between the two players, Sanchez lacking Manning’s “innate skill set."
Of course, that opinion isn’t unique to Casserly. Turn on any football-centric TV or radio show, and it becomes obvious clear that the notion of Sanchez-as-liability now passes for football wisdom, stated with axiomatic certainty. Some of the same people declaring that Sanchez' completion percentage is too low, and that he turns the ball over too much and, in extreme cases, that the Jets should replace him next season, throw laurel wreaths at the feet of Eli Manning, suggesting that he ranks among the top five quarterbacks in the league, as if the previous seven years of his career never existed.
That’s all in keeping with the landscape of the N.F.L.: Memories are short, opinions are ephemeral, and career history yields to whatever happened last week. But luckily, people tend to write things down. So we know, for example, that Eli Manning was the very picture of mediocrity through his first three years in the league and for a good while beyond. Not only wasn’t Manning markedly better than Mark Sanchez at the same point in his career; he was actually worse.
As Mark Sanchez prepares to face the Patriots in this weekend, he has all of 39 N.F.L. games to his credit. For his part, Eli Manning played his 39th N.F.L. game against the Saints in late December 2006, his third season in the league. Following that game against the Saints, Manning had attempted a total of 1,250 passes, completing 678 of them, good for a decent 54.2 percent percentage-rate—which is actually worse than Sanchez’ career completion percentage of 55.1.
Over the course of those 1,250 pass attempts, Manning averaged 6.35 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, over Sanchez’s first 39 games, he has attempted 1,130 passes and gained 6.64 yards per attempt—again, actually better than Manning.
And then there’s passer rating. Through 39 games, Manning’s passer rating was 73.2, whereas Sanchez’ is 73.4. Once again, Sanchez’ numbers are better.
And what about turnovers? Through his first 39 games, Manning threw 3.52 interceptions per 100 pass attempts. By contrast, Sanchez has thrown 3.53 interceptions per 100 pass attempts. It's a difference so small that both quarterbacks would have to attempt about 10,000 passes (or about 20 seasons’ worth) at those respective rates of interception before Sanchez would throw even one more interception than Manning.
Taken at face value, these numbers are no worse than a wash for Sanchez. But there’s also the fact that Sanchez had the enormous disadvantage of starting from week one of his rookie season, whereas Manning didn’t start for the Giants until week 11 of his own rookie season in 2004. This affects the numbers in two ways. First, it means that when Manning finally took over as the starter in 2004, he did so with the benefit of nearly three months spent watching and learning the N.F.L. game from the sidelines and under the tutelage of former M.V.P. Kurt Warner.
Doubtless, this only improved Manning’s performance once he got on the field. Second, and more importantly, it means that 15 of Sanchez’s 39 games were played during the crucible of a rookie season while only eight of Manning’s 39 games were. And because Manning did not play his 39th game until week 16 of his third N.F.L. season, Manning’s 39-game sample effectively offsets the six extra games that Sanchez played as a rookie with six of Manning’s third-year games. Yet Sanchez still breaks even or better.
An argument can be that this is due to peripheral talent. Football is a team game, and in fact much of the Sanchez-bashing seems to be motivated by the feeling that he ought to be doing better with the dynamic ensemble of talent with which Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum has surrounded him.
But in terms of any comparison between Sanchez and Manning, this notion falls apart, too. Through his first 39 games, Eli Manning had the better supporting cast yet managed less than Sanchez. For example, in the five seasons before Eli Manning arrived in 2004, Amani Toomer posted five consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Meanwhile, Sanchez’s three primary wide receivers over his career—Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Plaxico Burress—have only six 1,000-yard campaigns among them in 20 combined N.F.L. seasons.
Then consider that Manning played his first 39 games with Tiki Barber, who led the N.F.L. in total yards from scrimmage in both 2004 and 2005 before ranking fifth in that category in 2006. In fact, over the course of Manning’s first three years, Barber averaged an incredible 1,680 rushing yards a season. Sanchez, meanwhile, has handed off to Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, and a past-his-prime LaDainian Tomlinson. They're good backs, but just that. And at tight end, Manning had Jeremy Shockey, who was at least the equal of Dustin Keller.
As regards the offensive line, yes, Sanchez has enjoyed a superior run-blocking line, but whatever run-blocking advantage Sanchez derived from the line was offset by Manning’s superior running back. And with respect to pass protection, Manning’s was just as good as or better than Sanchez'. Illustratively, Manning was sacked on 4.9 percent of dropbacks over his first 39 games, while Sanchez has been sacked 5.8 percent of the time. The truth about Sanchez’ supporting cast on the Jets offense is that it’s good, but not appreciably better than the group with which Manning produced inferior numbers, far fewer wins, and zero playoff success through 39 games.
Mark Sanchez is just 25 years old and halfway through his third N.F.L. season. And his performance thus far, although not outstanding, is not inconsistent with becoming a good or even great quarterback at some point in the next several years.
Clearly, it’s not inconsistent with becoming the next Eli Manning.
This is a ridiculous article nobody said Eli was elite after his first 3 years in the nfl but he is elite now after 8 maybe sanchez could be elite in another few years but he certainly isn't now
This is one ridiculously pouty article. As if the previous seven years never existed? Those years included a SB MVP award from an undefeated team. Wow. Just wow.
CMCMCM,
If you had actually read (and understood) the article, Josh Curtis is merely stating that "IF" Eli Manning is considered an elite quarterback based on his past and present performance......THAN Mark Sanchez COULD be considered an elite quarterback also.
He never out right says that Eli Manning or Mark Sanchez are elite quarterbacks.
Maybe you should go back and read the article again, but this time, don't let the title throw you off.
J-E-T-S......JETS! ....JETS!.....JETS!