5:00 am Nov. 24, 2010
The Yankees have two high-profile free agents, but until this week, you'd never have known it. Shortstop Derek Jeter is without a contract, and the negotiation between him and his team, once assumed to be a formality, has turned both public and ugly this week.
Jeter's agent, Casey Close, pronounced himself “baffled” by the Yankees’ reported three-year, $45 million offer. The Yankees' general manager Brian Cashman said in turn that Jeter should “test the market” if he doesn't like the team's proposal.
Meanwhile, reports have the Yankees offering Mariano Rivera, the team's closer, only a one-year deal worth $18 million, while Rivera seeks a two-year pact at the same annual rate. The two offers suggest that the Yankees seem to consider Jeter the player more difficult to replace. This is hard to reconcile with the 2010 performances of Jeter and Rivera.
In Jeter, the Yankees would be committing, even with their “baffling” offer, to making him the highest-paid shortstop for the next three seasons, and those seasons will be his age 37-39 campaigns. That would be concerning enough, even if Jeter weren’t already in decline.
But Jeter posted a career-worst 90 OPS+ in 2010, while playing some of the worst defense at his position. (Kindly ignore that Gold Glove, please.) His OPS+ ranked ninth in the league among shortstops who qualified for the batting title; unsurprisingly, he was the oldest regular shortstop in the league.
Age is a particularly important consideration for shortstops. Since 1901, only 14 major leaguers have played in more than 100 games at age 37 or older primarily at shortstop. Of those 14, 13 posted an OPS+ of 87 or lower. And most of the players who managed to stay at the position so late in their careers had far better gloves than Jeter: The list includes people like Ozzie Smith, Phil Rizzuto and Mark Belanger.
The only reason to bet on Jeter is the track record of success before 2010, and some undetermined off-field value to keeping Jeter in a Yankee uniform, as if fans would stop showing up to see the Yankees continue to win.
Meanwhile, even as plenty of shortstops outplayed Jeter in 2010, Mariano Rivera remained among the top closers in baseball. His ERA+ of 238 actually lifted his career mark of 205 (100 is average); 205 happens to be the all-time best mark from any pitcher with at least 1,000 innings pitched.
He walked 11 batters all season, converted 87 percent of his save opportunities, and capped the year by shutting out the Twins and Rangers over six postseason appearances.
His career postseason ERA, in 139 2/3 innings, is a ludicrous 0.71. Only a dip in his strikeout rate—to a still-reasonable 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings—and his advanced age of 40 would suggest any possibility of decline.
Seldom is a closer worth more than a position player, especially at a premium position like shortstop. But this is one of those times.
Stranger still is the idea that Yankee fans could stomach Rivera leaving, but would consider the loss of Jeter unforgivable. The new shortstop, if he earns based on his skills what Jeter would make on his reputation, will be extremely good. Yankee fans didn't exactly kick Tino Martinez out of bed when he replaced the irreplaceable Don Mattingly at first base, then led New York to a World Series in 1996.
But Rivera? Any other closer, the moment he blows a game (and he will; even Rivera did from time to time), would be utterly vilified by the New York fans. And heaven forbid if the new closer blows a save in October; he'd be replacing a reliever who gave up 11 earned runs, total, in 94 playoff appearances over 15 years. Yankee fans could be forgiven in thinking Rivera never cracked in the postseason; he's come as close as anyone to being perfect.
Chances are, the Yankees will sign both Jeter and Rivera. Even when the Yankees cry poverty, it is hard for any other team to match their bargain-basement offers. And almost certainly, a team that offers Jeter more than three years at $45 million could only be looking to cause mischief.
But, while it represents an overpay, a team could do a lot worse than offering Mariano Rivera a two-year deal at the money he seeks. He's the truly irreplaceable one, with a postseason record that is almost impossibly good.
The Yankees, who weathered the exits of Don Mattingly and Babe Ruth, would be just fine without Jeter in 2011 and beyond; probably better off, at the money and years being discussed. But they'd regret losing Rivera, possibly for a long time.
