Hypothesis: As NY-9 goes, so go the Jews, and Florida and Pennsylvania, in 2012

Mark and David Weprin. (Azi Paybarah via flikr)
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Special elections are decided by special factors: the particular lay of the districts in which they're taking place, and the particular political environment that exists at the time a given election is held. But that doesn't make for a satisfying national narrative. So maybe actually NY-9, which stands to become both the most Jewish congressional district in America represented by a Republican and the most Jewish district in America represented by a non-Jew, will actually spark a national reaction involving dissatisfied Jewish voters and dissatisfied Jewish donors and pivotal states for Obama's re-elections: Florida and Pennsylvania.

Whatever happens after the election, national political dynamics have figured into the race. Weprin has sought to highlight his Republican opponent's desire to cut spending, which means, at some point, cutting back on entitlement programs. This echoes the debate happening in the Republican presidential primary, with Mitt Romney reminding everyone that Rick Perry, not long ago, referred to Medicare as a "Ponzi scheme." Perry stood by his comments at first, unlike Turner, who has tried to offer reassurances to the old people in his district about his intentions toward entitlement programs. But now he is backing off too, somewhat.

NY-9

A Turner win means Democrats are in trouble with Jewish voters, which also means Jewish donors, Florida and Pennsylvania. [John Podhoretz]

Weprin's campaign office is full of people; Turner's isn't. [Alex Isenstadt]

Anthony Weiner has moved out of Forest Hills and is renting in Greenwich Village, which "ends Weiner's chances of rebuilding his political career in the district." [Jennifer Gould Keil]

Giuliani casts the race: "The enthusiasm and the emotion is on Bob's side - the machine politics is on the other." [Thomas Kaplan and Kate Taylor]

Representative Crowley brushes aside the polls; Public Advocate Bill de Blasio says polls don't reflect turnout of Weprin's GOTV operation. [Courtney Gross]

Hank Sheinkopf raises the stakes: "If they lose a blue collar Democratic district in Queens, what happens in blue collar, Democratic districts around the nation next year." [AP]

If Weprin loses, D.C.C.C. Chairman Steve Israel and Queens Democratic County Leader Joseph Crowley will some explaining to do. [Devlin Barrett]

"Weprin and his supporters avoided talk of Obama and touted his lengthy resume in state and local government." [Paul Kane]

Weprin raised three times as much money as Turner. [Reuters]

The Democratic party leaders in Queens and Brooklyn "are great at using the election law to stop primaries. They are not so [good] at winning competitive elections." [Gary Tilzer]

The Tea Party Debate

Rick Perry softened his tone on Medicare, saying it'll be there for those at or near retirement. Ron Paul said taxes in Texas have doubled since Perry has been in office. [Jonathan Weisman and Neil King Jr.]

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The difference between Perry and Mitt Romney on Social Security is pronounced, and a rarity at such a high level of politics. [Jeff Zeleny and Ashley Parker]

A D.N.C. spokesman argues the opposite: "Romney wants to dismantle…Perry destroy." [@MichaelDNC]

Giuliani agrees. [Shushannah Walshe]

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Rafael Espinal did not directly answer a question about sex offenders during a debate. Deidra Towns was allowed to campaign at a Vito Lopez-related facility, although she said they gave her a hard time. Jesus Gonzalez said he wasn't allowed in. [Liz Robbins]

Trying John Haggerty

If called, Michael Bloomberg would testify. [David Seifman]

Howard Wolfson isn't worried. [John Eligon]

9/11

The original blog item about the "deeply shameful" acts of "Fake heroes like Bernie Kerik, Rudy Giuliani and yes, George W. Bush" gets an update by its author. "[T]he American people behaved remarkably well…Muslims weren't lynched and neither were dissenters." [Paul Krugman]

TV coverage and famous quotes that day were boring. [Cindy Adams]

Hollywood

Bloomberg wore the same outfit on "Curb Your Enthusiasm" last night as he did on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" because they were filmed on the same day. [Michael Barbaro]

Parade

A writer criticizes "an international wire service" and "other media outlets" for blaming the West Indian American Labor Day Parade for the violence that happened in Brooklyn that day. [Jared McCallister]